TheBlackSwan_SecondEdition_TheImpactofth.epub

2010 Random House Trade Paperback Edition Copyright © 2007, 2010 by Nassim Nicholas Taleb All rights reserved. Published in the United States by Random House Trade Paperbacks, an imprint of The Random House Publishing Group, a division of Random House, Inc., New York. RANDOM HOUSE TRADE PAPERBACKS and colophon are trademarks of Random House, Inc. Originally published in hardcover and in slightly different form in the United States by Random House, an imprint of The Random House Publishing Group, a division of Random House, Inc., in 2007. LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CATALOGING-IN-PUBLICATION DATA Taleb, Nassim. The black swan: the impact of the highly improbable / Nassim Nicholas Taleb. p. cm. Contents: Part one—Umberto Eco’s antilibrary, or how we seek validation—Part two—We just can’t predict—Part three— Those gray swans of extremistan—Part four—The end. eISBN: 978-0-679-60418-1 1. Uncertainty (Information theory)—Social aspects. 2. Forecasting. I. Title. Q375.T35 2007 003′.54—dc22 2006051093 www.atrandom.com v3.0_r7 CONTENTS Cover Title Page Copyright Note to the Second Edition Prologue On the Plumage of Birds What You......