FooledbyRandomness

CONTENTS Cover Title Page Copyright Preface Chapter Summaries Prologue PART I: SOLON’S WARNING Skewness, Asymmetry, Induction Chapter 1: IF YOU’RE SO RICH, WHY AREN’T YOU SO SMART? NERO TULIP Hit by Lightning Temporary Sanity Modus Operandi No Work Ethics There Are Always Secrets JOHN THE HIGH-YIELD TRADER An Overpaid Hick THE RED-HOT SUMMER Serotonin and Randomness YOUR DENTIST IS RICH, VERY RICH Chapter 2: A BIZARRE ACCOUNTING METHOD ALTERNATIVE HISTORY Russian Roulette Possible Worlds An Even More Vicious Roulette SMOOTH PEER RELATIONS Salvation via Aeroflot Solon Visits Regine’s Nightclub GEORGE WILL IS NO SOLON: ON COUNTERINTUITIVE TRUTHS Humiliated in Debates A Different Kind of Earthquake Proverbs Galore Risk Managers Epiphenomena Chapter 3: A MATHEMATICAL MEDITATION ON HISTORY Europlayboy Mathematics The Tools Monte Carlo Mathematics FUN IN MY ATTIC Making History Zorglubs Crowding the Attic Denigration of History The Stove Is Hot Skills in Predicting Past History My Solon DISTILLED THINKING ON YOUR PALMPILOT Breaking News Shiller Redux Gerontocracy PHILOSTRATUS IN MONTE CARLO : ON THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NOIS......