FooledbyRandomness

Fooled by Randomness is a work of nonfiction, but certain names of nonpublic figures have been changed, and some of the private individuals described are fictionalized or composite portraits. Copyright © 2004 by Nassim Nicholas Taleb All rights reserved. Published in the United States by Random House, an imprint of The Random House Publishing Group, a division of Random House, Inc., New York. RANDOM HOUSE and colophon are registered trademarks of Random House, Inc. Originally published in the United States in hardcover by TEXERE, part of Thomson Corporation, in 2004,and in trade paperback by Random House Trade Paperbacks, an imprint of The Random House Publishing Group, a division of Random House, Inc., in 2005. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Taleb, Nassim. Fooled by randomness: the hidden role of chance in life and in the markets / Nassim Nicholas Taleb. p. cm. Originally published: New York: Thomson/Texere, 2004. Includes bibliographical references and index. 1. Investments. 2. Chance. 3. Random variables. I. Title. HG4521.T285 2005 123’.3—dc22 2005049005 www.atrandom.com eISBN: 978-1-58836-767-9 v......